TWENTY-SECOND AFRICAN CONTINENTAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM (ACCOF-22)

BACKGROUND

Africa is highly exposed to climate variability and extreme weather associated with large-scale climate drivers such as El Niño. because of its strong dependence on rain-fed agriculture, limited adaptive infrastructure and the transboundary nature of many climate-related risks.

Global climate forecasting centres have now confirmed the onset of a strong El Niño event, expected to peak around November 2026, with impacts potentially extending into the first half of 2027. Past El Niño episodes, particularly the 2015/2016, and 2023/2024 El Niño events have been associated with severe and often compound hazards including drought in parts of Southern and above-average rainfall and flooding in parts of East Africa, as well as the disruption to agricultural seasons, water availability and food insecurity, livestock losses and public health emergencies affecting millions of people.

Timely, accurate and usable climate and early warning information is therefore critical to enable

governments, sectoral actors and communities to prepare and respond effectively. A central

bottleneck in this chain is not always the quality of forecasts themselves, but the platforms and

processes through which climate information reaches decision-makers and end-users. User Interface Platforms (UIPs) systems, portals, bulletins and communication channels used by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) to disseminate forecasts and advisories are frequently underdeveloped, fragmented, or poorly aligned with the practical needs of the sectors that depend on them (agriculture, water resources, health, disaster risk management, and humanitarian response).

A second bottleneck sits upstream. The forecasts flowing into those platforms are produced by

centres whose methods differ substantially from one region to the next, in predictors and model inputs, in calibration, in downscaling and in verification standards. Because the systems driving African rainfall operate at scales larger than any single centre’s area of responsibility, neighbouring centres can issue diverging forecasts for adjoining areas not because the climate differs at the border, but because the methods do. A draft Common Framework for Seasonal Forecasting Methodologies,Calibration Techniques and Downscaling Approaches is tabled at this session in response, alongside the draft White Paper on Harmonization of Long-Range Forecasting Data, Tools and Methods in Africa. The sunset of the IRI Data Library adds urgency, since it removes infrastructure on which RCC and NMHS workflows and hindcast access currently depend, and a transition to alternatives must be agreed before the peak of the event.

Under the ClimSA Project, ACMAD established the African Continental Climate Outlook Forum to harmonize sub-regional seasonal forecasts into a consensus continental outlook and to translate it into actionable guidance for climate-sensitive sectors. The twenty-second session, ACCOF-22, will be held in October 2026, building on the outcomes of ACCOF-21 and the Continental Dialogue on the Climate-Sector Nexus held in Lusaka in June 2026, which warned that the cost of climate inaction could affect socio-economic sectors in the most exposed areas.

The Forum responds directly to the urgency created by the looming El Niño event: it brings together climate service providers and users to jointly review, test and improve UIPs so that the information reaching decision-makers ahead of and during the event is timely, relevant and actionable. This forum will also be an opportunity for the RCCs and key stakeholders to assess the projected El Niño impacts, harmonize regional outlooks, share lessons, and co-develop actionable climate services and early warnings tailored to vulnerable communities.

OBJECTIVE

The overall objective of this session is to strengthen Africa's collective capacity to anticipate, prepare for and manage the impacts of the Strong El Niño 2026/2027 through timely, harmonized and actionable climate information.

The specific objectives are to:

● Review and verify the performance of recent seasonal forecasts and assess the current

evolution of El Niño and other climate drivers;

● Develop and issue a harmonized continental consensus climate outlook for the upcoming

season, integrating sub-regional RCOF products with specific attention to the expected

evolution and impacts of El Niño

● Engage Regional Climate Centres, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, key

sectoral users and humanitarian partners in translating the outlook into sector-specific

advisories and early action;

● Strengthen coordination and information-sharing across regions and sectors to support a

collective, proactive response to the anticipated El Niño impacts;

● Strengthen dialogue between climate service providers and end-users to ensure information

is timely, accessible and actionable;

● Identify priority improvements to User Interface Platforms (UIPs) to support anticipatory

action and preparedness for the anticipated El Niño impacts;

● Foster cross-country and cross-regional exchange of good practice in climate service co-

production.

EXPECTED RESULTS

The expected results of the Forum include:

● Verified performance of recent seasonal forecasts and an updated technical assessment of

El Niño and other climate driver evolution, providing a validated basis for the consensus outlook

● A consensus climate outlook for the upcoming season, integrating sub-regional RCOF

products with a dedicated focus on El Niño evolution and its anticipated sectoral impacts over

the coming months, produced and shared with decision-makers.

● Strengthened cross-regional and cross-sectoral coordination mechanisms and information-

sharing channels, supporting a collective and proactive response to El Niño impacts

● Reinforced dialogue and feedback loops between climate service providers and end-users,

improving the timeliness, accessibility and usability of climate information.

● Priority improvements to UIPs identified and agreed, better supporting anticipatory action and preparedness planning.

● Good practices in climate service co-production are documented and exchanged across

countries and regions, informing future forums and national processes.