EL NIÑO AND PUBLIC HEALTH SECURITY IN AFRICA

El Niño is no longer a purely meteorological phenomenon for Africa - it is a recurring, predictable driver of public health emergencies. Historical events have repeatedly shown the same chain reaction: drought or flooding, followed by food insecurity, disease outbreaks, and lasting harm to lives and livelihoods, particularly for children’s health and development. Forecasts now put the probability of a strong-to-major El Niño forming by late 2026 above 90%, with Southern and Eastern Africa again flagged as high-risk regions.

The evidence is unambiguous on two points:

(1) early warning systems have become increasingly reliable; and

(2) anticipatory funding and action have consistently failed to keep pace with those warnings, with documented response gaps exceeding 90% even after high-confidence forecasts. Closing this “warning-to-action” gap is the central public health security challenge of the coming El Niño cycle.

This brief summarizes the evidence base, draws cross-cutting lessons from the 1997–98, 2015–16, 2018/19, and 2023–25 events, outlines the 2026 outlook, and sets out five priority public health policy actions for Africa CDC and Member States.