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ACMAD climate intelligence

ENSO in Africa

ENSO monitoring, outlooks and impact information for Africa

ENSO conditions and implications for Africa — Sea surface temperature anomalies on 16 June 2026. Orange and red areas are warmer than normal, blue areas are cooler. The box shows the Niño 3.4 region, where sustained warming indicates El Niño. Source: NOAA OISST V2.1

Understanding ENSO and its implications for Africa

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring variation in tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation. It has three phases: El Niño (warm), La Niña (cool) and neutral. These phases can influence weather patterns around the world. Across Africa, ENSO effects are not uniform: the timing, strength and location of rainfall and temperature changes differ between regions and seasons.

ACMAD provides a continental view that complements national and regional information, helping decision-makers understand where conditions may create heightened risks or opportunities.

How El Niño typically affects rainfall in Africa

The map shows the typical rainfall patterns seen during past El Niño events. In the Sahel and West Africa, conditions tend to be drier from July to September, at the height of the monsoon season. East Africa often gets more rain than normal from September to January, which raises the risk of flooding, especially when the western Indian Ocean is warmer than usual. Southern Africa tends to be drier from November to April, with a higher risk of drought. These are typical patterns, not forecasts. Each El Niño event is different, and conditions in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans can strengthen or weaken these effects. See ACMAD's monthly climate bulletin for the current outlook.

How El Niño typically affects rainfall in Africa — Regions that are usually drier (yellow) or wetter (blue) than normal during El Niño years, with the months most affected. Green areas show a seasonal reversal. Source: UK Met Office

Latest updates and engagement

ENSO related activities

News, briefings and regional activities supporting preparedness and climate action across Africa.

10 Sep 2026 Event Workshop

UIP Workshop in Cotonou

View event

08 Sep 2026 Event Forum

TWENTY-SECOND AFRICAN CONTINENTAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM (ACCOF-22)

View event

From observation to early action

How ACMAD supports the continent

Monitor

Track Pacific Ocean and atmosphere conditions and the evolution of ENSO.

Assess

Interpret likely rainfall, temperature and sector impacts for African regions.

Inform

Publish regular bulletins and guidance for climate-sensitive decisions.

Coordinate

Work with RCCs, NMHSs and partners to support preparedness and early action.

Previous editions

Previous El Niño bulletins

No previous editions yet

Earlier monthly El Niño bulletins will appear here as new issues are published.